By Michael Burt
The National Parks Association (NPA) of NSW has refuted claims from Oxley MP Michael Kemp that there has been a ‘staggering leap’ in Koala numbers.
The latest national koala population estimates from CSIRO’s National Koala Monitoring Program (NKMP) states the listed population between 398,000 and 569,000, a rise from the 2024 estimate of 95,000 to 238,000. The listed estimate accounts for combined populations in Queensland, NSW and the ACT.
“While it is good news that the numbers are larger than previously modelled, the change in numbers is largely due to increased survey efforts and better information,” the CSIRO report summary states.
Mr Kemp has seized on the findings and says the NKMP findings show that koala populations have been under reported for decades.
Mr Kemp said the decision to push ahead with the Great Koala National Park shows blatant disregard for evidence and a lack of understanding of sustainable forest management.
“This decision isn’t about protecting koalas. It’s about politics. Labor is trading science for city votes,” Mr Kemp said.
“Instead of acknowledging the actual data and halting the world’s most sustainable industry with the strictest forestry regulations anywhere, Labor is destroying hundreds of regional jobs and locking up land under the false guise of conservation.”
The technical details of the NKMP’s 2025 population estimate will be published in a peer-reviewed scientific paper, expected late 2025 or early 2026.
The NPA of NSW says none of the newly published science supports the “highly partisan” interpretation that koala numbers are increasing, and the species was never at risk of extinction in NSW.
President Liz Jeremy said the October 2025 NKMP updates reflect the use of improved detection methods, particularly thermal drones, which are far more effective than older survey techniques.
“As CSIRO itself cautions, these results cannot be compared to estimates in previous years as the surveys have all been done differently,” Ms Jeremy said.
“In other words, the data does not show that koala populations are recovering, only that we are getting better at finding them.”
“There is no evidence of an actual population increase, and every key driver of decline, whether habitat loss, climate change, vehicle strike or disease, continues unabated.”
“Previous claims by the Nationals about koala numbers have focused on just one way of detecting koalas, acoustic detection surveys, a method that records the bellows of male koalas during the breeding season. While useful for identifying where mature males may be present, acoustic surveys cannot detect females or juveniles and doesn’t pinpoint the specific areas that koalas are occupying within a broader landscape.”
“Acoustic surveys are useful as a broad presence–absence tool, but poor indicators of population size or habitat use, particularly within fragmented or logged forests.”
“The bottom line is simple. The science has not changed, but our technology has improved. Koalas remain in decline, their habitat continues to shrink, and the Great Koala National Park is one of the most important conservation initiatives in NSW history.”
Ms Jeremy said the NSW State of the Environment report confirms that loss of forested and woodland habitat is still accelerating across the state.
“The overall picture for koalas in NSW remains deeply concerning, and the establishment of the Great Koala National Park is a vital step toward ensuring the species’ long-term survival.”
“While koalas are central to the Park’s purpose and identity, they were not the only reason for permanently protecting these forests from industrial logging. The GKNP safeguards an entire forested landscape, from escarpment to sea, along with the ecosystems and the full range of species, both common and threatened, that depend on it.”