By Michael Burt
El Niño is firmly established and will intensify into a “supersized” event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat.
That’s according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which forecasts a near 100% likelihood that El Niño weather patterns will persist through to February 2027.
Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said this is the first time that a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” Ms Guterres said.
“Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.”
The growing El Niño weather phenomenon to Australia’s east is evident heat breaking records and forecasts showing it may easily surpass previous events, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
BOM says the El Niño was now forecast to peak in late spring or summer and “reach levels above the warmest observed since reliable records began in 1950”.
“Given its current strength, in addition to the typical life cycle of an El Niño, this event is expected to persist into autumn 2027,” a BOM spokesperson said.
The Australian Conservation Foundation said the “looming monster El Nino; should send a dire warning to the federal government to stop approving new coal and gas projects.
“We are just a week into Spring and already Aussies and emergency services crews are facing emergency-level bushfires fuelled by coal and gas,” said CEO Adam Bandt.
“Summer and even Spring are scary seasons now, and the Albanese government must protect Australians by rejecting Woodside’s planned Browse gas project at Scott Reef and the Beetaloo fracking climate bomb in the Northern Territory.”
“If Beetaloo fracking is scaled up to full production, it would unleash around 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon pollution over its lifetime – three times Australia’s annual emissions.”